Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project

Chryso Th. Pallari; Souzana Achilleos; Annalisa Quattrocchi; John Gabel; Elena Critselis; Maria Athanasiadou; Mohammad Reza Rahmanian Haghighi; Stefania Papatheodorou; Tianyu Liu; Andreas Artemiou; Jose M Rodriguez-Llanes; Catherine M Bennett; Claudia Zimmermann; Eva Schernhammer; Natalia Bustos Sierra; Reindert Ekelson; Jackeline Lobato; Laylla Macedo; Laust Hvas Mortensen; Julia Critchley; Lucy Goldsmith; Gleb Denissov; Nolwenn Le Meur; Levan Kandelaki; Kostas Athanasakis; Binyamin Binyaminy; Tamar Maor; Fabrizio Stracci; Giuseppe Ambrosio; Kairat Davletov; Nataliya Glushkova; Cyndy Martial; Marie Chan Sun; Terje P Hagen; Mario Chong; Manuel Barron; Błażej Łyszczarz; Ivan Erzen; Pedro Arcos Gonzalez; Bo Burström; Nataliia Pidmurniak; Olesia Verstiuk; Qian Huang; Antonis Polemitis; Andreas Charalambous; Christiana A. Demetriou

doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013018

Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project

Chryso Th. Pallari, Souzana Achilleos, Annalisa Quattrocchi, John Gabel, Elena Critselis, Maria Athanasiadou, Mohammad Reza Rahmanian Haghighi, Stefania Papatheodorou, Tianyu Liu, Andreas Artemiou, Jose M Rodriguez-Llanes, Catherine M Bennett, Claudia Zimmermann, Eva Schernhammer, Natalia Bustos Sierra, Reindert Ekelson, Jackeline Lobato, Laylla Macedo, Laust Hvas Mortensen, Julia CritchleyLucy Goldsmith, Gleb Denissov, Nolwenn Le Meur, Levan Kandelaki, Kostas Athanasakis, Binyamin Binyaminy, Tamar Maor, Fabrizio Stracci, Giuseppe Ambrosio, Kairat Davletov, Nataliya Glushkova, Cyndy Martial, Marie Chan Sun, Terje P Hagen, Mario Chong, Manuel Barron, Błażej Łyszczarz, Ivan Erzen, Pedro Arcos Gonzalez, Bo Burström, Nataliia Pidmurniak, Olesia Verstiuk, Qian Huang, Antonis Polemitis, Andreas Charalambous, Christiana A. Demetriou

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Resumen

Introducción Para examinar el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en la mortalidad, estimamos la mortalidad por todas las causas en exceso en 24 países para 2020 y 2021, en general y estratificada por sexo y edad. Métodos Se recopiló la mortalidad semanal por todas las causas, específica por edad y sexo, para 2015-2021 y se calculó la mortalidad en exceso para 2020 y 2021 comparando las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por edad semanales de 2020 y 2021 con la mortalidad esperada, estimada en función de datos históricos (2015-2019), teniendo en cuenta la estacionalidad y las tendencias a largo y corto plazo. La mortalidad en exceso semanal específica por edad se calculó de manera similar utilizando tasas de mortalidad brutas. Se investigó la asociación de variables relacionadas con el país y la pandemia con la mortalidad en exceso utilizando modelos de regresión simples y multinivel. Resultados Se encontró mortalidad acumulada en exceso tanto para 2020 como para 2021 en Austria, Brasil, Bélgica, Chipre, Inglaterra y Gales, Estonia, Francia, Georgia, Grecia, Israel, Italia, Kazajistán, Mauricio, Irlanda del Norte, Noruega, Perú, Polonia, Eslovenia, España, Suecia, Ucrania y Estados Unidos. Australia y Dinamarca experimentaron mortalidad en exceso solo en 2021. Mauricio demostró una disminución estadísticamente significativa en la mortalidad por todas las causas durante ambos años. La incidencia semanal de COVID-19 se asoció significativamente de manera positiva con la mortalidad en exceso durante ambos años, pero la asociación positiva se atenuó en 2021 a medida que aumentaba el porcentaje de la población completamente vacunada. El índice de rigurosidad de las medidas de control se asoció positiva y negativamente con la mortalidad en exceso en 2020 y 2021, respectivamente. Conclusión Este estudio proporciona evidencia de una mortalidad en exceso sustancial en la mayoría de los países investigados durante los primeros 2 años de la pandemia y sugiere que la incidencia de COVID-19, la rigurosidad de las medidas de control y las tasas de vacunación interactuaron en la determinación de la magnitud de la mortalidad en exceso.

Idioma original	Inglés
Número de artículo	e013018
Número de páginas	14
Publicación	BMJ Global Health
Volumen	9
N.º	4
Fecha en línea anticipada	18 abr. 2024
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013018
Estado	Publicada - abr. 2024

Nota bibliográfica

Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

Palabras clave

Mortalidad en exceso
Pandemia de COVID-19, 2020-
Tasas de vacunación
Medidas de control

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

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Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age- and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project
Barrón Ayllón, M. F. (Autor)
2023
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Pallari, C. T., Achilleos, S., Quattrocchi, A., Gabel, J., Critselis, E., Athanasiadou, M., Haghighi, M. R. R., Papatheodorou, S., Liu, T., Artemiou, A., Rodriguez-Llanes, J. M., Bennett, C. M., Zimmermann, C., Schernhammer, E., Sierra, N. B., Ekelson, R., Lobato, J., Macedo, L., Mortensen, L. H., ... Demetriou, C. A. (2024). Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project. BMJ Global Health, 9(4), Artículo e013018. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013018

@article{3e9873cc06c04d31970c8be507d6f506,

title = "Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project",

abstract = "Introduction To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age.Methods Total, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015textendash2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015textendash2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models.Results Excess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Northern Ireland, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the USA. Australia and Denmark experienced excess mortality only in 2021. Mauritius demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in all-cause mortality during both years. Weekly incidence of COVID-19 was significantly positively associated with excess mortality for both years, but the positive association was attenuated in 2021 as percentage of the population fully vaccinated increased. Stringency index of control measures was positively and negatively associated with excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, respectively.Conclusion This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality in most countries investigated during the first 2 years of the pandemic and suggests that COVID-19 incidence, stringency of control measures and vaccination rates interacted in determining the magnitude of excess mortality.Data are available in a public, open access repository. The data underlying this study, beyond what is available in the article and in its online supplemental material, along with statistical analysis codes, are available in a public repository: CTP, CD, SA, AA and MRRH (2023). Dataset and code for {\textquoteright}Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project{\textquoteright} (Data set).",

keywords = "Mortalidad en exceso, Pandemia de COVID-19, 2020-, Tasas de vacunaci{\'o}n, Medidas de control, Excess mortality, COVID-19 pandemic, Vaccination rates, Control measures",

author = "Pallari, {Chryso Th.} and Souzana Achilleos and Annalisa Quattrocchi and John Gabel and Elena Critselis and Maria Athanasiadou and Haghighi, {Mohammad Reza Rahmanian} and Stefania Papatheodorou and Tianyu Liu and Andreas Artemiou and Rodriguez-Llanes, {Jose M} and Bennett, {Catherine M} and Claudia Zimmermann and Eva Schernhammer and Sierra, {Natalia Bustos} and Reindert Ekelson and Jackeline Lobato and Laylla Macedo and Mortensen, {Laust Hvas} and Julia Critchley and Lucy Goldsmith and Gleb Denissov and Meur, {Nolwenn Le} and Levan Kandelaki and Kostas Athanasakis and Binyamin Binyaminy and Tamar Maor and Fabrizio Stracci and Giuseppe Ambrosio and Kairat Davletov and Nataliya Glushkova and Cyndy Martial and Sun, {Marie Chan} and Hagen, {Terje P} and Mario Chong and Manuel Barron and B{\l}a{\.z}ej {\L}yszczarz and Ivan Erzen and Gonzalez, {Pedro Arcos} and Bo Burstr{\"o}m and Nataliia Pidmurniak and Olesia Verstiuk and Qian Huang and Antonis Polemitis and Andreas Charalambous and Demetriou, {Christiana A.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. {\textcopyright} Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.",

year = "2024",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013018",

language = "English",

volume = "9",

journal = "BMJ Global Health",

issn = "2059-7908",

publisher = "BMJ Publishing Group",

number = "4",

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Pallari, CT, Achilleos, S, Quattrocchi, A, Gabel, J, Critselis, E, Athanasiadou, M, Haghighi, MRR, Papatheodorou, S, Liu, T, Artemiou, A, Rodriguez-Llanes, JM, Bennett, CM, Zimmermann, C, Schernhammer, E, Sierra, NB, Ekelson, R, Lobato, J, Macedo, L, Mortensen, LH, Critchley, J, Goldsmith, L, Denissov, G, Meur, NL, Kandelaki, L, Athanasakis, K, Binyaminy, B, Maor, T, Stracci, F, Ambrosio, G, Davletov, K, Glushkova, N, Martial, C, Sun, MC, Hagen, TP, Chong, M , Barron, M, Łyszczarz, B, Erzen, I, Gonzalez, PA, Burström, B, Pidmurniak, N, Verstiuk, O, Huang, Q, Polemitis, A, Charalambous, A & Demetriou, CA 2024, 'Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project', BMJ Global Health, vol. 9, n.º 4, e013018. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013018

Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project. / Pallari, Chryso Th.; Achilleos, Souzana; Quattrocchi, Annalisa et al.
En: BMJ Global Health, Vol. 9, N.º 4, e013018, 04.2024.

Producción científica: Contribución a una revista › Artículo de revista › revisión exhaustiva

TY - JOUR

T1 - Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021

T2 - results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project

AU - Pallari, Chryso Th.

AU - Achilleos, Souzana

AU - Quattrocchi, Annalisa

AU - Gabel, John

AU - Critselis, Elena

AU - Athanasiadou, Maria

AU - Haghighi, Mohammad Reza Rahmanian

AU - Papatheodorou, Stefania

AU - Liu, Tianyu

AU - Artemiou, Andreas

AU - Rodriguez-Llanes, Jose M

AU - Bennett, Catherine M

AU - Zimmermann, Claudia

AU - Schernhammer, Eva

AU - Sierra, Natalia Bustos

AU - Ekelson, Reindert

AU - Lobato, Jackeline

AU - Macedo, Laylla

AU - Mortensen, Laust Hvas

AU - Critchley, Julia

AU - Goldsmith, Lucy

AU - Denissov, Gleb

AU - Meur, Nolwenn Le

AU - Kandelaki, Levan

AU - Athanasakis, Kostas

AU - Binyaminy, Binyamin

AU - Maor, Tamar

AU - Stracci, Fabrizio

AU - Ambrosio, Giuseppe

AU - Davletov, Kairat

AU - Glushkova, Nataliya

AU - Martial, Cyndy

AU - Sun, Marie Chan

AU - Hagen, Terje P

AU - Chong, Mario

AU - Barron, Manuel

AU - Łyszczarz, Błażej

AU - Erzen, Ivan

AU - Gonzalez, Pedro Arcos

AU - Burström, Bo

AU - Pidmurniak, Nataliia

AU - Verstiuk, Olesia

AU - Huang, Qian

AU - Polemitis, Antonis

AU - Charalambous, Andreas

AU - Demetriou, Christiana A.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

PY - 2024/4

Y1 - 2024/4

N2 - Introduction To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age.Methods Total, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015textendash2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015textendash2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models.Results Excess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Northern Ireland, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the USA. Australia and Denmark experienced excess mortality only in 2021. Mauritius demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in all-cause mortality during both years. Weekly incidence of COVID-19 was significantly positively associated with excess mortality for both years, but the positive association was attenuated in 2021 as percentage of the population fully vaccinated increased. Stringency index of control measures was positively and negatively associated with excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, respectively.Conclusion This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality in most countries investigated during the first 2 years of the pandemic and suggests that COVID-19 incidence, stringency of control measures and vaccination rates interacted in determining the magnitude of excess mortality.Data are available in a public, open access repository. The data underlying this study, beyond what is available in the article and in its online supplemental material, along with statistical analysis codes, are available in a public repository: CTP, CD, SA, AA and MRRH (2023). Dataset and code for ’Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project’ (Data set).

AB - Introduction To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age.Methods Total, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015textendash2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015textendash2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models.Results Excess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Northern Ireland, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the USA. Australia and Denmark experienced excess mortality only in 2021. Mauritius demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in all-cause mortality during both years. Weekly incidence of COVID-19 was significantly positively associated with excess mortality for both years, but the positive association was attenuated in 2021 as percentage of the population fully vaccinated increased. Stringency index of control measures was positively and negatively associated with excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, respectively.Conclusion This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality in most countries investigated during the first 2 years of the pandemic and suggests that COVID-19 incidence, stringency of control measures and vaccination rates interacted in determining the magnitude of excess mortality.Data are available in a public, open access repository. The data underlying this study, beyond what is available in the article and in its online supplemental material, along with statistical analysis codes, are available in a public repository: CTP, CD, SA, AA and MRRH (2023). Dataset and code for ’Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project’ (Data set).

KW - Mortalidad en exceso

KW - Pandemia de COVID-19, 2020-

KW - Tasas de vacunación

KW - Medidas de control

KW - Excess mortality

KW - COVID-19 pandemic

KW - Vaccination rates

KW - Control measures

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85191381302&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/89894089-6a81-3c1a-b111-1290a807cc16/

U2 - 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013018

DO - 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013018

M3 - Article in a journal

C2 - 38637119

SN - 2059-7908

VL - 9

JO - BMJ Global Health

JF - BMJ Global Health

IS - 4

M1 - e013018

ER -

Pallari CT, Achilleos S, Quattrocchi A, Gabel J, Critselis E, Athanasiadou M et al. Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project. BMJ Global Health. 2024 Abr.;9(4):e013018. Epub 2024 Abr. 18. doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013018

Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project

Resumen

Nota bibliográfica

Palabras clave

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

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Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age- and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project

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