The aim of this study is to analyse the effects of climate variability on the poverty of artisanal fishers in Peru. First, an index of vulnerability of artisanal fishers in the face of climate variability along the Peruvian coast was calculated. This index consists of three components (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability) and classifies the vulnerability of a study area in a range from 0 to 1. Second, using the generalized propensity score method, the effect of climate variability that occurred in 2015 on the poverty of artisanal fishers in three areas of the Peruvian coast was estimated. This effect is calculated through the variation of the probability of poverty among the artisanal fishers from high to low according to the degree of economic impact. The results confirmed a positive relationship between the calculated vulnerability index and poverty levels; the North was the most vulnerable area (0.67), followed by the Centre (0.61) and the South (0.43). Likewise, the areas with stronger effects of climate variability exhibited greater variation in the probability of poverty (North: 12%, Centre: 11% and South: 4%). Finally, the results show the importance of the adaptive capacity of artisanal fishers in the face of changes in climatic conditions.
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- Climate Change Vulnerability Index
- Climate variability
- Generalized propensity score (GPS) model
- Peruvian artisanal fisheries