Sistema híbrido para tomada de decisão em investimentos no mercado de criptomoedas

The cryptocurrency markets have been attracting attention and attracting all types of investors, from people to financial institutions that seek high returns due to the significantvariation in prices and their rapid appreciation. However, this market is Braz. J. of Develop., Curitiba, v.7, n.2, p.19577-19593, dec. 2020. ISSN 2525-8761 353 characterized bythe level of volatility and uncertainty, leading the prices to very high levels and low levels; these characteristics generate great difficulty in investment managers' decision-making. This article proposes a hybrid system for decision making in investment management in the cryptocurrency market, considering a conservative investment profile, which seeks to reduce risk and maximize return on investment. The methodology aims, based on the historical price of cryptocurrencies, to establish return levels and estimate the probabilities of the transition of returns for each level; this is done based on the analysis of Markov chains, which are integrated into the multiple decision trees to identify the cryptocurrency that projects the greatest future return, considering that it will be sold in one or two periods after the acquisition. The results are compared with the real data, andthe efficiency of the methodology is verified.