TY - JOUR
T1 - Piecewise linear trends and cycles in primary commodity prices
AU - Winkelried, Diego
PY - 2016/6/1
Y1 - 2016/6/1
N2 - We extend the methodology put forward in Yamada and Yoon (2014, Journal of International Money and Finance, 42(C), 193-207) to analyze the trend and cyclical behavior of relative primary commodity prices. These authors propose the use of the so-called ℓ1-filter that renders piecewise linear trends of the underlying data. Our focus on the calibration of such filter and its implications for the empirical analysis of primary commodity prices, especially the interpretation given to the resulting trend. We also illustrate how suitably calibrated filters may be used to compute piecewise linear (super) cycles, whose turning points are easy to identify.
AB - We extend the methodology put forward in Yamada and Yoon (2014, Journal of International Money and Finance, 42(C), 193-207) to analyze the trend and cyclical behavior of relative primary commodity prices. These authors propose the use of the so-called ℓ1-filter that renders piecewise linear trends of the underlying data. Our focus on the calibration of such filter and its implications for the empirical analysis of primary commodity prices, especially the interpretation given to the resulting trend. We also illustrate how suitably calibrated filters may be used to compute piecewise linear (super) cycles, whose turning points are easy to identify.
KW - Commodity prices
KW - Hodrick-Prescott filter
KW - Piecewise linear trends
KW - Super cycles
KW - Commodity prices
KW - Hodrick-Prescott filter
KW - Piecewise linear trends
KW - Super cycles
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.01.006
DO - 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.01.006
M3 - Article in a journal
SN - 0261-5606
VL - 64
SP - 196
EP - 213
JO - Journal of International Money and Finance
JF - Journal of International Money and Finance
ER -