Peru holds an important portion of the South American rainforest. An average deforestation rate of 145,000 ha a year makes it the largest source of GHG emissions. Based on the drivers of deforestation, this paper proposes a deep decarbonization pathway (DDP) through the year 2050 with the purpose of taking the country closer to achieving the net-zero emissions goal. The impacts of the pathway are estimated using POLYSYS-Peru, an equilibrium displacement model for the integrated analysis of land-use changes and agriculture. The results indicate that the proposed DDP pathway, by preventing the deforestation of 4 million hectares of primary forests, would reduce GHG emissions by an accumulated 1778 Mt CO2 eq. compared to the business as usual scenario, and 497 Mt CO2 eq. more than the Nationally Determined Contributions.
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The costs of rights allocation (including titling, monitoring, control and incentive fund) for the period 2020?2050 are estimated are $359 million dollars according to information provided by Plan CC .To start addressing these challenges, we present two additional interventions. First, the introduction of the system of rice intensification (SRI) in the coast. The SRI system offers advantages for the farmer and the environment. The yield per hectare of SRI is higher (12%) than the traditional method and has a lower water consumption and generates fewer emissions (?10%). Previous analyses indicate the adoption of SRI technology requires financing resources, extension support for farmers and an adequate supply of labor, particularly when smallholders are predominant . However, the structure of the Peruvian coastal rice sector, characterized by medium and large commercial producers, would allow these challenges to be surmounted, and lend itself well to the adoption of SRI technology .
This work was supported by the European Climate Foundation and the 2050 Pathways Platform ( G-1806-02163 ). We want to thank the anonymous reviewer, Chris Bataille and Henri Waisman for their valuable comments.
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