The effects of El Niño events on mangrove-dependent populations’ income in Peru

Mangroves do not only play a fundamental adaptation and mitigation role in the face of climate variability but also provide ecosystem services and contribute to the well-being of local communities. This study analyses the socioeconomic effects of El Niño phenomena in 2015 and 2017 on mangrove-dependent populations in northern Peru, particularly in the Tumbes region. Using a triple difference model, this study estimates the impact of El Niño events on the income of communities in the Tumbes districts in and adjacent to the Los Manglares de Tumbes National Sanctuary (LMTNS). The results show that the most affected and vulnerable communities during these El Niño events are those located in mangrove areas, given their economic dependence on mangrove ecosystems, which are significantly affected by the climatic variability generated by El Niño. Our findings highlight that institutions should pay special attention to mangrove-dependent populations in the context of climate change, which could increase the intensity and frequency of El Niño events.