Technology and epidemics

Alberto Chong, Luisa Zanforlin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle in a journalpeer-review

3 Scopus citations


Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures shows that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)426-455
Number of pages30
JournalIMF Staff Papers
Issue number3
StatePublished - Sep 2002


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