Abstract
Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures shows that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 426-455 |
| Number of pages | 30 |
| Journal | IMF Staff Papers |
| Volume | 49 |
| Issue number | 3 |
| State | Published - Sep 2002 |