Socioeconomic risks of extreme El Niño event-related road damages in Peru

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This study evaluates the socioeconomic risk that extreme El Niño event-related road damages present to Peru by combining an environmental modelling of events’ occurrences in the country with a quantitative modelling of their effects on its economy. The dynamic of occurrence of events is modelled as a stochastic process with a vector autoregressive representation based on historical climatic data, and simulated over a 10-year period with a non-parametric bootstrap procedure. The indirect consequences of events’ related road damages are addressed with a multiregional dynamic computable general equilibrium model through an increase in interregional transportation costs and, more originally, a negative externality effect on activities’ output, which is estimated beforehand using a firm database. We find that extreme El Niño events constitute a significant one-off disaster risk for the country, threatening shifts of − 2.8% in GDP and + 1.9% in poverty rates with an annual probability p = 1.4%. We further show that they also present a longer-term risk, leading to average annual deviations from normal trend by − 0.8% in GDP and + 0.4% in poverty rate with a probability p = 12.6% over a 10-year period. However, we finally show that Peru might reduce these socioeconomic risks associated with these non-frequent but recurrent climatic shocks in constructing more disaster-resilient road infrastructure.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)831-851
Number of pages21
JournalEnvironmental Modeling and Assessment
Issue number5
Early online date2 Jun 2022
StatePublished - Oct 2022

Bibliographical note

El 14 de julio 2022 se publicó una corrección de este artículo.
Ver: Correction to: Socioeconomic Risks of Extreme El Niño Event-Related Road Damages in Peru (Environmental Modeling & Assessment, (2022), 27, 5, (831-851), 10.1007/s10666-022-09830-9)


  • Computable general equilibrium
  • Extreme weather events
  • Peru
  • Risk assessment


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