Legisladores priores y predicción de densidad de inflación

Translated title of the contribution: Policymakers priors and inflation density forecasting

Marco Vega

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle in a journalpeer-review


This paper models an inflation density forecast framework that closely resembles policymakers' actual behavior regarding the determination of the modal point, the uncertainty and asymmetry in inflation forecasts. The framework combines the prior information about these parameters available to policymakers with a standard parametric density estimation technique using Bayesian theory. The combination crucially hinges on an information-theoretic utility function gain for the policymaker from performing the forecast exercise.
Translated title of the contributionPolicymakers priors and inflation density forecasting
Original languageSpanish
Pages (from-to)43-7
Issue number55
StatePublished - Jul 2004


  • Inflación
  • Metas de inflación
  • Métodos bayesianos
  • Política monetaria


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