La protección social en Argentina en un contexto de transición demográfica

Argentina is going through a process of demographic transition that will result in an older population structure. The demographic transition has direct effects on the quantity and adequacy of social protection transfers, with particular emphasis on those related to pensions. The main objective of this paper is to identify the potential trends of social protection expenditures in an aging context. On the basis of the expenditure profile by age, we apply National Transfer Accounts methodology to simulate social protection expenditures until 2100. The results suggest that, under various alternative social security coverage scenarios, the demographic transition process would lead to an increase in future social protection expenditures, reaching 16% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050 and exceeding 24% in 2100.