El Potencial de Comercio del Acuerdo Trans-Pacífico para el Perú, un enfoque Gravitacional

Despite the decision of the United States to not to participate in the Trans Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement (TPP), such agreement may represent an important opportunity for Peru’s trade policy agenda. If ratified, countries with the greatest trade potential under the TPP should be identified. If the TPP initiative fails, Peru could still seek to negotiate free trade agreements (FTA) with those countries exhibiting the highest trade potential. Thus, this paper fills this gap by specifying a gravity model that estimates the impact of trade barriers reductions on Peru’s potential trade. The data is a panel of Peru’s potential trade-partners –those who belong to the TPP but with whom there is no other trade-agreement - from 2005-2015. Our results suggest that a reduction in trade barriers has non-significant effects on Peru’s trade potential with those countries.