Crisis financiera internacional y patrón de crecimiento de una economía mediana y dependiente: El caso del Perú

This article examines the transition in the growth pattern of the Peruvian economy: from the primary export strategy to the import substitution model - traditional in Latin America - and then, because of the new market rules applied since the nineties, the return to the primary export pattern. It discusses the new elements introduced by the current international financial crisis and outlines a likely qualitative scenario for the Peruvian economy. The immediate international response to the current crisis, through countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies, the new rules, as well as the role played by the global institutions have all prevented the breakdown and change of the current model, avoiding a similar situation to the crisis of the thirties and World War II. The current international crisis, for now, has worsened the trends and effects observed since the nineties, that exacerbated the Dutch disease, the levels of structural heterogeneity and the social exclusion.