Exit, Voice, or Vocal Exit? Authoritarianism, Protest and Emigration in Venezuela

In this paper we ask how household emigration experiences, in contexts of authoritarian regimes, affect further migration intentions and the willingness to protest of those back home. To address this question, we study the case of Venezuela. Between 2015 and 2024, nearly a quarter of its population left the country amid interrelated socioeconomic, humanitarian, and political crises. Of those who stayed behind, millions risked their freedom and their lives in protesting against the Maduro regime. While the study of Venezuelan displacement and integration challenges across the region has proliferated, less is known about the relationship between large scale emigration and the willingness to protest of those who stayed behind. To address this question, we build on Hirschmann’s exit-voice model and apply regression analysis to a nationally representative survey (n=1580) conducted in Venezuela in 2022. Taking a household-level view, we examine how prior emigration experiences interact with other socio-demographic, economic, and political factors to affect migration intentions and the willingness to protest. The paper contributes to the literature on Venezuelan displacement, the study of migration determinants and the democratization literature.